*************************** ** THE GEM MESSENGER ** *************************** Volume 5, Number 40 December 21, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ Update on GEM GGCM Campaign/SEC Space Weather Workshop ------------------------------------------------------ From: George Siscoe (siscoe at buasta.bu.edu) GEM GGCM Campaign/SEC Space Weather Workshop January 11-12, 1996 and Pre-Snowmass Workshop January 13, 1996 Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado This is an update on the GEM GGCM Campaign/SEC Space Weather Workshop. The agenda is slightly but interestingly modified. This is also an announcement of an extra day added to the workshop to give the GGCM Campaign time to plan its response to a challenge put forth by the GEM Boundary Layer Campaign, which is to model from solar wind/IMF inputs the results of their campaigns. All modelers interested in responding to the challenge are invited to stay for the Saturday session. The specific details of the challenge will then be revealed. The time will be spent defining tasks to be completed in time for a presentation at the Snowmass workshop. An agenda for the Saturday session will be distributed in a separate newsletter. Agenda for January 11 and 12 Thursday, January 11 08:30 Welcoming Remarks...Ernest Hildner, Director SEC 08:35 Meeting logistics...Howard Singer 08:40 Meeting goals..George Siscoe 08:45 The National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan and GEM...Rich Behnke, Director, Upper Atmosphere Research Section, NSF 09:10 Directions for magnetospheric models and sensors: An Air Force Perspective...Lt. Col. C. Tschan (50 WS) 09:35 MSM performance at 50th Weather Squadron...Kevin Scro 10:00 Break 10:30 WIND/SWIM: The first L1 space weather station Introductory remarks...Bob Carovillano 10:35 Using & distributing real-time SWIM data & thinking ahead to ACE...Kent Doggett (SEC) 10:50 A post-ACE, L1 space-weather station...Pete Bythrow 11:05 Comparing prediction with eventuality: A case study... J. Kunches (SEC) 11:20 Harvesting the low hanging fruit: The 1 to 2 year perspective...Howard Singer (SEC) 11:40 Getting ready for Solar Max 23: GEM community opportunities...JoAnn Joselyn (SEC) 12:00 Lunch 01:00 Panel discussion on boundary position specification and forecasts Panelists: M. Heinemann (Moderator); K. Doggett; J. Lyon; C. Russell; H. Singer; P. Song; S. Stahara/J. Spreiter; D. Vassiliadis 02:30 Break 03:00 Panel discussion on radiation belts Panelists:M. Hudson (Moderator); T. Cayton; M. Chen; G. Ginet; X. Li; D. Speich 04:30 Panel discussion on disturbance index forecasts (Kp, K, A, AU, AL, AE, Dst, PC) Panelists:R. Wolf (Moderator), T. Detman; J. Fedder; J. Freeman; J. Hirman; J. Joselyn; J. Kozyra; A. S. Sharma 05:30 Adjourn Friday, January 12 08:30 Panel discussion on auroral electrojet and GIC forecasts Panelists: H. Singer (Moderator); C. Balch; G. Erickson; J. Fedder; J. Kappenman; G. Lu; N. Maynard; V. Papitashvili; J. Raeder; D. Vassiliadis; J. Walker; L. Zanetti 10:00 Break with demonstration of Dan Weimer's universal IMF potential pattern algorithm 10:30 Panel discussion on models Panelists: G. Siscoe (Moderator); J. Berchem; T. Detman; M. Hesse; J. Fedder; B. Sonnerup; R. McPherron; T. Onsager; J. Raeder; F. Toffoletto; W. White; R. Wolf 12:00 Lunch 01:00 Panel discussion on implementation Panelists: R. Behnke (Moderator); R. Carovillano; G. Heckman; E. Hildner; H. Petschek; Capt. A. Preble; K. Scro; Lt. Col. C. Tschan 02:30 Closing discussion...R. Zwickl (Moderator) 03:00 End Panel discussion format: Each discussion will comprise 5-minute, 2-vugraph presentations by panelists followed by (prearranged with panel moderator) 5-minute, 2-vugraph contributions from the floor followed by panel discussion with questions and comments from the floor. Each panel will address the questions: where do we want to be in the panel's topic area in 2 years and 5 years? where are we now? and what needs to happen to get from here to there? The question, where are we now?, will likely be the subject of the opening contributions from the panel and the floor. There will be additional questions specific to each panel, as follows: Panel on boundary position specification and forecasts: How do we build reliable prediction algorithms for extreme events? Panel on radiation belts: What roles do diffusion, convection, and surfing play in populating the radiation belts? What is the physics behind the energetic outer electron belt? Panel on disturbance index forecasts: How do we move beyond the historical indices to indices appropriate to now? Panel on auroral electrojet and GIC forecasts: How can we measure spatiotemporal forecast reliability so that users will know when they are reliable enough to justify taking costly actions to avoid predicted problems? Is it useful to think of an optimal mix of forecast approaches? Panel on models: What are the prospects for MSFM upgrades--e.g. incorporating a Toffoletto/Hill-like module and radiation belt modules? Ditto for Drift-orbit/MHD hybrids? How do we regulate solar wind coupling and substorm dynamics? Is regulation neces- sary? How do we treat real-time data assimilation? What are the operational roles of analytical, semi-empirical, statistical, and numerical models? Panel on implementation: Is there a procedure by which algorithm developers (science types) and space weather service officers (forecaster types) can bring about diagnosing, specification and forecast algorithms that are tested, certified, and transitioned into operation? How can two-way information flow between these two groups be established and fostered? What steps will lead to increasing the value of space weather services? +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ |To add name to the mailing list, send a message to: editor at igpp.ucla.edu | |For message to whole GEM mailing list, send to: gem at igpp.ucla.edu | |For message to a specific working group (BL Campaign), send to: | | gem_field at igpp.ucla.edu (WG1); gem_boundary at igpp.ucla.edu (WG2); | | gem_current at igpp.ucla.edu (WG3); gem_data at igpp.ucla.edu (WG4) | | gem_ggcm at igpp.ucla.edu (WG5) | | gem_chair at igpp.ucla.edu (WG chairs, Odile and W. J. 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