***************************
			 **   THE GEM MESSENGER   **
			 ***************************
						     Volume 6, Number 4
						     January 30, 1996

-------------------------------------------------------------
1. FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT FOR WORKSHOP ON THE EVALUATION OF SPACE 
   WEATHER FORECASTS
-------------------------------------------------------------
From: Kent A. Doggett (kdoggett at sec.noaa.gov)

Workshop on the Evaluation of Space Weather Forecasts
NOAA Space Environment Center
June 19-21, 1996    Boulder, Colorado

Background:

The importance of space weather predictions is increasing as the 
economic use of outer space plays an ever larger and vital role in 
our future.  Verification of most space weather forecasts is 
inadequate, however, and in many cases, traditional verification 
methods remain seriously incomplete and potentially misleading.

An emerging area of space weather prediction involves the development
and operational implementation of space-environment models.  A 
comprehensive verification strategy is crucial for evaluating the 
effectiveness of these models under different conditions, and for 
measuring improvements as they are modified.  Furthermore, the 
working forecaster requires a comprehensive set of diagnostic 
verification tools to use in the process of producing real-time, 
space weather products.

A related subject that comes up repeatedly, but which is often not 
clearly defined, concerns the +value? of space weather forecasts.  
Forecast value necessarily involves the forecast user, but how can 
this user-related value be effectively measured?

This workshop will address these areas by bringing verification 
experts and space weather people together.  The main objectives are
to educate space weather forecasters on critically assessing their 
forecasts (both end-user forecasts and model output forecasts used 
in preparing subsequent space weather products); to educate space 
weather modelers on the appropriate methods and approaches to use as
they evaluate their models during development and enhancement; and 
to educate verification experts on the unique aspects of space 
weather prediction.

When:
     * June 19-21, 1996
Where:
     * NOAA Space Environment Center, Boulder, Colorado
Who:
     * Space weather forecast centers
     * Space weather modelers
     * Forecast verification experts
     * Terrestrial-weather verification experts/users
Purposes:
     * Bring together verification experts with those responsible 
       for space weather predictions,
     * Assess the current practice of space weather forecast evaluation,
     * Explore new methods and systems for forecast verification,
     * Outline a strategy for the evaluation of operational space 
       weather models,  and
     * Investigate the concept of +value? in relation to space 
       weather forecasts
Topics:
  Verification Methods and Systems
     * Verification methods overview
     * Guidance from the terrestrial weather community
     * Verification systems
     * New verification methods and approaches
     * Operational diagnostics for real-time evaluation and product
       generation
     * Special topics (e.g., rare-event verification and verification
       of ensemble forecasts)
  Evaluation of Space Weather Models:
     * Space weather models overview (purpose and scope)
     * Verification methods in use (with example results from target
       data intervals)
     * Verification strategies for new models
     * Approaches for evaluating competing models in real-time 
       forecast operations
  Forecast Quality/Value Relationships
     * Theoretical background
     * Examples in terrestrial weather
     * Strategies for assessing value in the space weather user 
       community
Scientific Organizing Committee:
  Space Weather Forecast Center Community
     * Kent A. Doggett (NOAA/SEC)
     * kdoggett at sec.noaa.gov
  Space Environment Modeling Community
     * Dimitris Vassiliadis (NASA/USRA)
     * vassi at lepgst.gsfc.nasa.gov
  Terrestrial Weather Modeling Community
     * Eugenia Kalnay (NWS/EMC)
     * ekalnay at smtpgate.ssmc.noaa.gov
  Forecast Verification Community
     * Allan H. Murphy (P&E Systems)
     * murphya at ucs.orst.edu
Complete Up to Date Information:
     * http://www.sel.noaa.gov/forecast_verification/workshop.html

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|To add name to the mailing list, send a message to: editor at igpp.ucla.edu |
|For message to whole GEM mailing list, send to:   gem at igpp.ucla.edu      |
|                                                                         |
|URL of GEM Home Page: http://igpp.ucla.edu/gem/Welcome.html              |
|Please update your e-mail address.                                       |
|CAUTION: Do not send messages to gem at igpp.ucla.edu unless you want       |
|         your message to go to everyone in the GEM mailing list!         |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+