*************************** ** THE GEM MESSENGER ** *************************** Volume 6, Number 16 April 23, 1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND ANNOUNCEMENT FOR SEC'S WORKSHOP ON THE EVALUATION OF SPACE WEATHER FORECASTS ----------------------------------------------------------------- From: Kent Doggett (kdoggett at sel.noaa.gov) June 19-21, 1996 NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado WORKSHOP PURPOSE AND GOALS The importance of space weather predictions is increasing as the economic use of outer space plays an ever larger and vital role in our future. Verification of most space weather forecasts is inadequate, however, and in many cases, traditional verification methods remain seriously incomplete and potentially misleading. An emerging area of space weather prediction involves the development and operational implementation of space-environment models. A comprehensive verification strategy is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of these models under different conditions, and for measuring improvements as they are modified. Furthermore, the working forecaster requires a comprehensive set of diagnostic verification tools to use in the process of producing real-time, space weather products. A related subject that comes up repeatedly, but which is often not clearly defined, concerns the +value? of space weather forecasts. Forecast value necessarily involves the forecast user, but how can this user-related value be effectively measured? This workshop will address these areas by bringing verification experts and space weather people together. The main objectives are to educate space weather forecasters on critically assessing their forecasts (both end-user forecasts and model output forecasts used in preparing subsequent space weather products) to educate space weather modelers on the appropriate methods and approaches to use as they evaluate their models during development and enhancement and to educate verification experts on the unique aspects of space weather prediction. SCIENTIFIC ORGANIZING COMMITTEE Kent A. Doggett NOAA/SEC 325 Broadway R/E/SE Boulder, CO 80303-3328 303-497-3317 (FAX: 303-497-7392) kdoggett at sec.noaa.gov Eugenia Kalnay NOAA/EMC 5200 Auth Road W/NMC2 Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304 301-763-8005 (FAX: 301-763-8545) ekalnay at smtpgate.ssmc.noaa.gov Allan H. Murphy Prediction and Evaluation Systems 3115 NW McKinley Drive Corvallis, OR 97330-1139 541-754-7424 (FAX: 541-737-2540) murphya at ucs.orst.edu Dimitris Vassiliadis USRA NASA/GSFC Code 692 Greenbelt, MD 20771 301-286-9060 (FAX: 301-286-1683) vassi at lepgst.gsfc.nasa.gov GENERAL INFORMATION CONTACT Candice Curtiss NOAA/SEC 325 Broadway R/E/SE Boulder, CO 80303-3328 303-497-3204 (FAX: 303-497-7392) ccurtiss at sec.noaa.gov WORKSHOP PRELIMINARY PROGRAM Wednesday, June 19 Overview of Forecast Verification in Space and Terrestrial Weather Morning Sessions Chair: K. Doggett (NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO) 08:15-08:20 E. Hildner (Director, SEC) - Workshop welcome 08:20-08:30 Introductory remarks 08:30-09:15 R. McPherron (UCLA/IGPP, Los Angeles, CA) - Space Weather Prediction: An Overview of Objectives, Methods, and Problems 09:15-10:00 A. Murphy (P.E.S., Corvallis, OR) - A Conceptual and Methodological Overview of Forecast Verification 10:00-10:30 Break 10:30-11:15 E. Kalnay (NWS/EMC, Camp Springs, MD) - An Overview of Verification Techniques Used at the NWS Environmental Modeling Center 11:15-12:00 Open Discussion (moderator: G. Heckman, NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO) 12:00-13:30 Lunch break (and tour of SEC Forecast Center) Verification of Space/Terrestrial Weather Models Afternoon Sessions Chair: D. Vassiliadis (NASA/USRA, Greenbelt, MD) 13:30-14:00 R. Livezey (NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD) - Field Verification/ Intercomparison: Measures and Perturbation and Cross-Validation Techniques 14:00-14:30 S. Sharma (U. of Maryland, College Park, MD) - Forecast and Verification of Geomagnetic Indices 14:30-15:00 G. Lu (NCAR, Boulder, CO) Forecasts and Verification with the AMIE Model 15:00-15:30 Break 15:30-16:00 N. Maynard (MRC, Nashua, NH) - Forecast and Verification of the SWIFT Model 16:00-16:30 V. Papitashvili (U. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI) - Prediction and Verification of the Polar Cap/Auroral Zone Electric Potentials from IZMEM for AE Index Evaluation 16:30-17:30 Open Discussion (moderator: H. Singer, NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO) 17:30 Adjourn for day Thursday, June 20 Verification of Space/Terrestrial Weather Models (cont.) Morning Sessions Chair: pending confirmation 08:20-08:30 Introductory remarks 08:30-09:00 J. Freeman (Rice U., Houston, TX) - Verification of Inner Magnetospheric Particle Fluxes Specified by the MSFM 09:00-09:30 C. Groves (USAF/50WS, Colorado Springs, CO) - Validation of the MSM 09:30-10:00 B. Brown (NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO) - Impacts of Incomplete Observations on Verification Methods and Results 10:00-10:30 Break 10:30-11:00 Posters/Demonstrations (5-minute overviews) 11:00-12:00 Open Discussion (moderator: pending confirmation) 12:00-13:30 Lunch break Verification of Space/Terrestrial Weather Models (cont.) and Forecast Quality/Value Relationships Afternoon Sessions Chair: G. Siscoe (Boston U., Boston, MA) 13:30-14:00 G. Reeves (LANL, Los Alamos, NM) - Verification in Time and Energy of Geosynchronous Electron Injections 14:00-14:30 L. Zanetti (Johns Hopkins U./APL, Laurel, MD) - Spatio-Temporal Verification of a Polar-Orbit Satellite Early Warning System 14:30-15:00 R. Krzysztofowicz (U. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA) - Sufficiency, Informativeness, and Value of Forecasts 15:00-15:30 Break 15:30-16:00 R. Katz (NCAR/ESIG, Boulder, CO) - Quality/Value Relationships for Weather and Climate Forecasts 16:00-16:30 D. Wilks (Cornell U., Ithaca, NY) - Use and Value of Forecasts in Real-World Decision-Making Problems 16:30-17:30 Open Discussion (moderator: A. Murphy, P.E.S., Corvallis, OR) 17:30 Adjourn for day Friday, June 21 Verification in Space/Terrestrial Weather Operations Session Chair: D. Speich (NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO) 08:20-08:30 Introductory remarks 08:30-09:00 P. Pratt (TRW, Colorado Springs, CO) - A Near-Operational Environment for Developing and Testing Space Weather Models 09:00-09:30 P. Polger (NWS/OM, Silver Spring, MD) - NWS National Verification Program: Procedures and Recent Results 09:30-10:00 G. Maglaras (NWS/WSFO, Albany, NY) - The Utilization of Verification Data at an NWS Forecast Office 10:00-10:30 Break 10:30-11:00 K. Doggett (NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO) - Forecast Verification at the NOAA Space Environment Center 11:00-11:30 E. Sagawa (HSTRC, Ibarakai, Japan) - Space Weather Operations and Forecast Verification at the Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center 11:30-12:00 P. Nurmi (FMI, Helsinki, Finland) - Real-Time Verification of Operational Weather Forecasts at the Finnish Meteorological Institute 12:00-13:30 Lunch break 13:30-15:30 Summary Discussion (moderator: H. Petschek, MHP, Inc., Lexington, MA) - Where are we and where do we go from here? 15:30 Adjourn workshop CONTRIBUTED PAPERS AND DEMONSTRATIONS Contributed poster papers and demonstrations will be on display for the duration of the Workshop. Abstracts for contributed papers should be submitted with the registration. Standard 4x8 cork poster-board, thumb tacks, and tape will be provided. Special needs for demonstrations, such as Internet connections or computers, should be requested with the registration well in advance of the Workshop. PROCEEDINGS PUBLICATION It is anticipated that a proceedings publication will be produced following the Workshop. Presenters should provide an extended abstract of 2-5 pages in length, with a list of key references, for inclusion. The format of these abstracts should follow AGU publication standards. If possible, presenters should bring a camera-ready copy of their papers to the Workshop. Review of the submitted papers will be arranged by the Scientific Organizing Committee before publication. REGISTRATION Registration is $50 before May 15 or $75 after May 15. Checks and money orders should be made out to +US Department of Commerce.? Cash should not be sent in the mail, but can be accepted at the Workshop. Registration fees include all workshop materials, refreshments at breaks, and a Proceedings publication. You can register by mail or on-line through the World Wide Web at: http://www.sel.noaa.gov/forecast_verification/workshop.html. ACCOMMODATIONS A block of rooms has been reserved for Workshop attendees at The Broker Inn 555 30th Street Boulder, CO 80303 1-800-338-5407 303-444-3330 FAX: 303-444-6444 Attendees should make reservations directly with the hotel before Friday, May 17, and should mention Space Environment Center Verification Workshop. Room rates are $72 single and $82 double and include a full breakfast and complimentary access to the Boulder PULSE Fitness Club. TRANSPORTATION AND DIRECTIONS The workshop will be held in Boulder, Colorado at the US Department of Commerce Boulder Laboratories. The main sessions will be in Room 1107 of USDOC Building 1, at 325 Broadway. Poster and demonstration session will be in Rooms 1103 and 1105. All rooms are located in the front of the building, just past the main-entrance foyer. There are several means of travel from Denver International Airport (DIA) to Boulder. One method is the Boulder Airporter (303-444-0808), which provides shuttle service departing DIA every hour to several Boulder hotels, including The USDOC Boulder Laboratory Building 1 (the location of the Workshop) is a 15-minute walk from The Broker Inn. Shuttle transportation will be arranged from The Broker Inn to the workshop if there is enough interest. +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ |To add name to the mailing list, send a message to: editor at igpp.ucla.edu | |For message to whole GEM mailing list, send to: gem at igpp.ucla.edu | | | |URL of GEM Home Page: http://igpp.ucla.edu/gem/Welcome.html | |Please update your e-mail address. | |CAUTION: Do not send messages to gem at igpp.ucla.edu unless you want | | your message to go to everyone in the GEM mailing list! | +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+