Is there a Need for More-Detailed Solar-Wind Models

SHINE co-convener: Nick Arge <Nick.Arge @ Kirtland.af.mil>

GEM co-convener: Bob McPherron <rmcpherr @ igpp.ucla.edu>

McPherron and Pizzo both took the position that it would be impossible to view the Sun from the Earth and predict the wave form of Bz at the Earth.

The major response to this view was “who cares” about substorm prediction?

The contrary view was that it is only necessary to predict large scale structures such as CMEs and CIRs. It was claimed that this would eventually be possible.

However, the US military does worry about 5-day, 3-day, and 24 hour forecast of the probability of certain types of disturbance.

It was pointed out that current MHD models of the solar wind have a grid size of 500 Re corresponding to two-hours of solar wind travel. Details of the solar wind at a smaller scale are not contained within these models.

Current (and probably future) observations of the solar wind from the Earth are inadequate to initialize models at the Sun.

It was argued that we need solar sentinels in both equatorial and polar orbits around the Sun to provide necessary input.

Dan Weimer presented comparisons of ACE data propagated to Stereo A and B with his method. There was surprisingly good agreement out to 1000 Re separation.

Tamas Gombosi pointed out that a 1-D MHD model of solar wind from ACE could be developed but would not do much better than the Weimer empirical method.

Justin Kasper described efforts to produce very high time and space resolution maps of the properties of the inner heliosphere using Faraday rotation and tomography. This may eventually provide the data required for model initialization.